Equity Learning

Shadow-outcome analysis and parameter recommendations (#904). Every bucket is a counterfactual replay — trades taken AND trades skipped, labeled under the strategy's locked stop/target/EOD logic.

Confidence Calibration
Shadow hit rate by AI-confidence bucket
BucketnTaken/SkippedHit rateAvg RSum R
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Choke point: pattern detector vs confidence threshold
Skip cohortSkipsWould-win rateAvg RR left on table
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"pattern_missing" = rejected because no pattern was detected at all; "low_confidence" = a pattern was found but scored below the threshold.

Meta-Labeling Model observation-only

Joint tree-ensemble classifier over decision-time factors (vwap distance, RVOL, ATR%, gap%, float, ...), purged 5-fold CV vs. the raw AI-confidence baseline above. Applies only to AI Warrior Challenger strategies. Never produces a recommendation — see the AFML research track, EQUITY_LEARNING_SYSTEM.md §10.

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Recommendations
Confidence 90%

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Global Insights cross-strategy

Patterns that span your entire equity book — "bull flags on Fridays", "10-20% gap at open" — mined from counterfactual shadow outcomes (taken AND skipped), not just closed trades.

Confidence 90%

No global insights yet. Click "Mine Patterns" to run across your book.

Pre-Entry Advisories alert-only

Real-time warnings when a prospective entry matches a known weak bucket (block / warning) or affirms a strong one (info). Driven by the Global Insights above.

No advisories yet. They accumulate as live equity signals fire; you can also use Preview above to test.

Pattern Type
PatternnHit rateAvg RSum R
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Gap % Band
BandnHit rateAvg RSum R
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RVOL Band
BandnHit rateAvg RSum R
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Float Band
BandnHit rateAvg RSum R
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Time of Day (ET session)
SessionnHit rateAvg RSum R
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Stop / Target
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